Flat Growth Looms: A New Holiday 2025 Playbook

The holiday season has long been the undisputed heavyweight champion of the retail calendar, a period where fortunes are made and yearly targets are met. Yet, as brands begin to map out their strategies for the 2025 holiday rush, a sobering new reality is setting in. The familiar crescendo of explosive growth may be replaced by a more muted hum of cautious consumer spending.

This is the landscape painted by Amy Kapolnek, the founder of Fwrd Group, a growth consultancy that has become an essential partner for independent brands navigating the complexities of modern commerce. Her forecast for the 2025 holiday season is a stark departure from the gold-rush mentality of years past: revenue is expected to be flat to slightly up, with growth, if any, confined to the low single digits. This isn't a prediction of doom, but rather a call for a fundamental strategic rethink.

The culprits are familiar pressures weighing on the global consumer: persistently rising living costs and the looming impact of tariffs are tightening household budgets. In this environment, the old playbook of deeper discounts and louder advertising is not just ineffective; it's a direct path to margin erosion and brand dilution. Instead, Kapolnek's guidance offers a new blueprint for success, one built on surgical customer targeting, promotional discipline, and a sophisticated, multi-channel approach to building brand value.

Navigating the New Economic Reality

The core challenge for Holiday 2025 is a macroeconomic headwind that marketing alone cannot change. Kapolnek’s projection of flat to low single-digit growth is a critical anchor point for every brand’s planning process. It signals a shift from a market of expansion to a market of competition for existing share. Every dollar a consumer spends will be more considered, more scrutinized, and harder to win.

This economic pressure forces a crucial change in mindset. Brands can no longer rely on a rising tide to lift all boats. Instead, they must become more efficient, more strategic, and more compelling in their value proposition. The question is no longer "How much can we grow?" but rather "How can we profitably capture our share of a constrained market?" This means budgets must be allocated with precision, and every campaign must be justified by a clear return on investment.

Understanding the 'why' behind this forecast is paramount. Rising living costs mean consumers have less discretionary income. They are prioritizing needs over wants and seeking maximum value from every purchase. Tariffs can further impact pricing and supply chains, adding another layer of complexity. Brands that ignore this context and proceed with business-as-usual growth targets are setting themselves up for a painful fourth quarter. The winners will be those who accept the new reality and adapt their strategies to thrive within it.

The Dual Focus: Acquiring New and Rewarding Loyal Customers

In a tight market, the debate over acquiring new customers versus retaining existing ones becomes more pointed. Kapolnek advocates for a nuanced, balanced approach, with a strategic tilt towards acquisition during the holiday window. Her reasoning is rooted in consumer psychology: the holiday season is a unique period of "trial and discovery." Shoppers are actively looking for new ideas, unique gifts, and different brands, making them more receptive to marketing messages than at any other time of the year.

This presents a golden opportunity to fill the top of the funnel and introduce the brand to a fresh audience that can be nurtured into long-term customers in the following year. It’s a strategic investment in future growth, using the heightened discovery mindset of Q4 to plant seeds for Q1 and beyond. The goal is to capture attention when it is most available and convert that attention into a first purchase.

However, this focus on acquisition cannot come at the expense of loyalists. For existing customers, the strategy must pivot from discovery to reward. Kapolnek wisely cautions against simply offering them the same deep discounts available to the general public. This approach does little to foster loyalty and can make your best customers feel unappreciated. Instead, the focus should be on value-adds that reinforce their connection to the brand.

Think exclusive VIP access to new collections, limited-edition products reserved only for them, or special promotions that go beyond a simple percentage off. These tactics reward loyalty, create a sense of community, and make your existing customers feel like insiders. It’s a powerful way to maintain brand equity and encourage repeat purchases without entering a race to the bottom on price.

Rewriting the Promotional Calendar

The traditional rhythm of holiday retail, centered almost entirely around the Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend, is becoming obsolete. Today’s consumer is overwhelmed, busy, and constantly bombarded with offers. To cut through the noise, Kapolnek advises a more strategic and elongated promotional calendar.

A key tactic is the launch of pre-holiday sales in late September or early October. This serves multiple strategic purposes. First, it allows brands to capture consumer dollars before the peak holiday spending frenzy begins and wallets are stretched thin. Second, it gets ahead of the competitive crush of November, allowing a brand's message to be heard more clearly. This early engagement can secure revenue and build momentum leading into the core holiday period.

When it comes to the BFCM period itself, the strategy should be one of endurance, not a sprint. Kapolnek suggests week-long campaigns rather than a frantic focus on a single 24-hour window. This acknowledges the reality of modern life; consumers may not be available to shop on one specific day. A longer campaign provides more touchpoints, accommodates different schedules, and reduces the pressure on both the brand and the customer, leading to a more considered and less chaotic shopping experience.

The Art of Promotional Discipline and Value Storytelling

Perhaps the most critical piece of advice from Kapolnek is the call for promotional discipline. In a market where consumers are hunting for deals, the temptation to slash prices is immense. However, frequent and deep discounting is a dangerous game that can permanently damage brand equity and train customers to never pay full price.

Brands must resist this urge and instead focus on reinforcing the value story behind their products. Why is a product worth its price? The answer lies in its craftsmanship, the quality of its materials, its unique design, or the mission of the company behind it. This narrative is a brand's most powerful asset. The holiday season should be a time to amplify this story, not abandon it in favor of a discount code.

This doesn't mean forgoing promotions entirely, but it does mean they should be strategic, intentional, and value-driven rather than price-driven. A gift-with-purchase, a special bundle, or free expedited shipping can create urgency and drive conversion without devaluing the core product. The goal is to make the customer feel they are getting exceptional value, not just a cheap price. This disciplined approach preserves margins and ensures the brand emerges from the holiday season stronger, not weaker.

Beyond the Screen: Diversifying Channels for Maximum Impact

In a digitally saturated world, the most innovative strategies often involve breaking out of the online echo chamber. Kapolnek emphasizes the power of a diversified channel strategy, blending digital reach with tangible, real-world experiences. In-store activations, for example, offer a powerful way to connect with customers on a human level.

Partnering with key retail partners to create compelling in-store experiences—be it a product demonstration, a pop-up shop, or an exclusive event—can drive significant sales and create lasting brand memories. These activations cut through digital fatigue and provide a tactile interaction with the product that a website simply cannot replicate.

Furthermore, Kapolnek points to the strategic use of off-price channels like TJ Maxx, QVC, or FabFitFun. While some premium brands may balk at this, it should be viewed not as brand dilution but as a calculated awareness play. These channels can introduce a brand to a massive new audience, acting as a powerful engine for trial and discovery. The key is to see it as the beginning of a customer journey. A customer who discovers a brand through an off-price channel can be strategically retargeted and nurtured, eventually converting them into a loyal, full-price shopper on the brand's own direct-to-consumer (DTC) site or Amazon storefront.

Ultimately, the 2025 holiday season will be a test of strategic acumen. The brands that succeed will not be the ones that shout the loudest or discount the deepest. They will be the ones that understand the cautious consumer, that balance new customer acquisition with loyalist rewards, that tell a compelling value story, and that intelligently leverage a full spectrum of channels. Kapolnek's playbook is a guide for not just surviving a flat market, but for building a more resilient and valuable brand within it.